Polling The Polls
The polls are in and its official, Barack Obama is the greatest president in the history of the world.
Reporters are gushing and waxing poetic tomes of effusive praise for this 100 day old president. There are just not enough words to express the wonders of what Barack Hussein Obama has been able to accomplish in this opening salvo of his presidency.
The Pew Research Center released their most recent poll showing a 63% approval rating for Obama. The AP and Gfk Roper Public Affairs survey showed a 64% approval rating. The press is delighted to quote these impressive although not extraordinary numbers for a first term president’s first 100 days. But if you take a closer look the numbers are far more revealing and may prove that the old rules of polling are not going to supply real or useful data with this administration.
Addressing the second issue first, the numbers show that these polls are dubious at best. I am a firm believer that if you want to discover a root cause or the reasoning behind an action all you have to do is follow the money. So the question is; where is there money to be made in this presidential popularity polling? Certainly news media will pay even though most have their own polling and political action groups will pay. They are useful as an historic reference but because each is simply a snapshot in time.
Polls always reflect political party affiliation but more importantly they reflect the issues of the time. After the Nixon resignation America was desperate for a fresh new face. They found it in Jimmy Carter, a toothy smiling southerner that carried his sport coat slung over his shoulder. After his first 100 days Carter received a 63% approval rating just like Obama. Carter turned out to be a dismal failure as president. His complete cluelessness to the issues at hand and his blind pursuit of what he deemed human rights led to the overthrow of the Shah of Iran and the installation of the Ayatollah Khomeini and his merry band of Islamic zealots. This led to the forceful overtaking of the American Embassy and the kidnapping of 52 Americans who were held hostage on the world stage for 444 days. The Middle East is what it is today thanks to the feckless leadership of Jimmy Carter.
The hostage taking along with runaway inflation and mortgage interest rates around 18% led to Carter’s dismissal after only one term. Ronald Reagan stepped into the White House and within minutes of his inauguration the hostages were released. Reagan garnered a whopping 67% popularity rating after his first 100 days thanks in great part to the release of the hostages.
But these poll numbers reflected a wide range of the American population. With Barack Obama the numbers are far less wide spread. Democrats are giving him a 93% approval rating while Republicans are giving him 30%. The black community has now what was thought to be impossible only a decade ago. A black president was more than anybody in the community could have dreamt of. Regardless of what this president does he will receive a 99.9% approval rating from the blacks. He will receive a similar approval rating from white liberals regardless of the results of his actions because they too feel the most important thing is his color.
When you take these two major groups into consideration a 63% overall approval rating is actually not what it seems. The fact that Obama is carrying a 49% approval when asked if the country is headed in the right direction may be up from the old Bush numbers, but is in fact pretty disturbing when you consider a 99.9% approval from blacks.
It remains to be seen how long it will take to get a more realistic view based on results rather than rhetoric. But once the black community begins to feel they have been let down by this black president the poll swings will be far greater than anything we have seen before.
Change was the promise. When the ridiculous spending and insurmountable debt being implemented by this administration fails to deliver the desired results the biggest change will be in the polls.
