Statistically Speaking
The truth is that 82% of all statistics presented as the truth are made up on the spot. And the rest….well, let’s just say that numbers don’t lie, but the people reporting them sometimes do
As the country continues its preordained, politically correct discussion on race, the facts are getting skewed by the intentional misuse of misleading statistics. To be sure, statistical studies are an important tool in problem solving. But in order to find root cause solutions or even carry on a meaningful discussion one must first be willing to incorporate all the facts.
Industry has adopted a statistical system of process management and problem solving through the advancement of Six Sigma programs. These Six Sigma projects teach the importance of addressing all issues involved when attempting to find the root cause problem and implement solutions. The goal in these sometimes very time consuming activities is to zero in on the correct remedy rather than take a shot gun approach or worse yet attempt to debate a problem to death. It demands careful analysis and a true willingness to change based on the results of the study.
While the positive impact on industry from this approach has been profound, the supposed discussion the country is engaged in regarding race relations lacks several of the key features necessary for success. Rarely are all the facts addressed when discussing race and even less frequently is the discussion based on a willingness of all parties involved to actually change anything. We can discuss until we all turn blue, but rather than looking for solutions most of the discussion is simply trying to attach culpability.
Such is the case with the recent release of traffic studies of Illinois communities and the state as a whole. The Chicago Tribune carried a front page article ambiguously suggesting that while police search an inordinate percentage of minority driven vehicles at traffic stops, a higher percentage of white drivers actually have contraband found when searched. The study showed officers found contraband in 15.4% of the cases for minorities as opposed to 24.7% for whites. The ACLU jumped on this statistic as proof of unwarranted searches on minorities. But while it was mentioned that these were “consent searches” no other explanation of what that means was given. Once again, in an attempt to assure a particular conclusion not all the facts are included.
A “consent search” is conducted only if the driver gives his permission. There are actually very few “consent searches” performed, accounting for a mere 1% of all traffic stops. If the driver refuses the request to search his vehicle and officers still have probable cause to believe a search will render some form of contraband, other means are used to get legal authority to conduct the search. The results of these searches are not included in these statistics as they are no longer considered a “consent search”. The reality is that minority drivers are far less likely to allow a “consent search”, whether they have something to hide or not. It also shows that while whites are more likely to give consent they are not nearly as clever as they think they are in concealing their contraband.
The purpose of releasing these study results as they were is not to further the discussion on race but rather to promote a particular outcome to the discussion as illustrated by comments made by ACLU of Illinois spokesman Ed Yohnka. He said “There is just a predisposition to believe that minorities have contraband….. The data and indisputable nature of this is exactly what the president was talking about…..”
The ACLU is also filing complaints citing that in Chicago minority drivers are 4 times more likely to get searched than whites. But this statistic tells us nothing about the nature of the stop, the nature of the occupants in the car or the neighborhood in which the stop was conducted. I hate to break the news to the ACLU but there are a lot more drugs and guns rolling down the streets in the poor minority neighborhoods of Chicago than there are in the wealthy neighborhoods.
Just a quick glance at the violent crime statistics in the city will explain why more minority vehicles are searched. To somehow try to tie race to police enforcement without accounting for crime levels in the areas being patrolled is patently misleading and unimaginably dangerous.
If you want to have an honest and open discussion about race I’m all for it. But let’s start with all the facts and work our way from there.
More tomorrow.
